The Iowa caucus is one month away. Republican candidates for president will begin to discern how much voters approve of them Jan. 3, when Iowans choose their candidate for the GOP nominee. The Hill reports the GOP field is wide open. Newt Gingrich is moving up in the polls. Herman Cain is in crisis mode as he suspended his campaign amid allegations of an extramarital affair. Mitt Romney is trying to be victorious in Iowa where he hasn't been successful in the past.
Even if a surprise candidate wins the Iowa caucus, it's doesn't necessarily mean that person will be the Republican nominee. History isn't necessarily on the winning candidate's side.
* The Des Moines Register lists results of past caucuses. Republicans released numbers going back to 1980. A summary was only available for 1976.
* In the 1980 Iowa caucus, George Bush defeated Ronald Reagan by over 2,000 votes for the GOP choice. Reagan went on to win the Republican nomination and then the presidency with Bush as his running mate for vice president. Future candidate Bob Dole only got 1,576 votes at just 1.5 percent.
* Eight years later, Kansas Sen. Bob Dole received over 40,000 votes in the Iowa caucus on his way to a bid for the presidency. Bush came in third place with half as many votes yet he went on to win the 1988 general election over Michael Dukakis, according to the U.S. Election Atlas.
* The 1996 Iowa caucus actually got the GOP nominee correct. Dole received the overall nomination in a crowded field of nine candidates vying for votes in the "first in the nation" election. Dole won narrowly over Pat Buchanan by less than 3,000 votes.
* George W. Bush won the Iowa caucus in 2000 by a full 11 percentage points. Sen. John McCain came in fifth place with just over 4,000 votes.
* The New York Times reports the 2008 Iowa caucus was one of the more interesting in history. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee got over 40,000 votes while his closest competition received 29,949 votes. Romney, the current front runner, was the one who got second. McCain was the future nominee but voters wouldn't know it by his showing in Iowa. Then-Sen. Barack Obama's opponent came in a distant fourth place with just over 15,500 votes.
Even though Iowa is first in the nation when it comes to picking presidential nominees for elections, winning the Iowa caucus doesn't guarantee success nationally. Perhaps both Romney and Gingrich should realize that as they try to win the day on Jan. 3.
William Browning is a research librarian specializing in U.S. politics. Born in St. Louis, Browning is active in local politics and served as a campaign volunteer for President Barack Obama and Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill.
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